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PipsMorrow

Fundamentals and Macro

Why currencies move over weeks and months, what the scheduled data actually measures, and how to be in the market around a release without being run over by it.

INTERMEDIATE
  • 8 lessons
  • 32 topics
  • ~2.7 hrs
Start the first lesson

By the end of this track

You can read a central bank statement and an economic calendar and say what is at stake for a given pair.

What this track covers

What sets a currency's price

Almost everything in this track reduces to expectations about interest rates.

01

Interest Rates and Why Currencies Follow Them

22 min4 topics

The single relationship that explains most medium-term currency moves.

  • Nominal and real rates
  • Expectations are priced first
  • Rate differentials between two currencies
  • Why the actual decision often moves less than the tone
Start lesson
02

How Central Banks Communicate

24 min4 topics

Statements, projections and press conferences, and which part the market actually trades.

  • The statement and what changed in it
  • Projections and dot plots
  • The press conference
  • Decision versus guidance
Start lesson

The data that moves the market

Three families of release account for most scheduled volatility.

03

Inflation Data: CPI and PCE

20 min4 topics

What each measures, which one a central bank watches, and why the core reading gets the reaction.

  • How CPI is built
  • PCE and why the Fed prefers it
  • Headline versus core
  • Reacting to a surprise
Start lesson
04

Employment Data and NFP

20 min4 topics

The monthly release with the widest reaction, and the three numbers inside it.

  • The headline count
  • Unemployment rate
  • Average hourly earnings
  • Revisions, and why they matter more than they look
Start lesson
05

Growth and Activity Data

18 min4 topics

PMI, GDP and retail sales — the slower releases that set the background.

  • PMI and the 50 line
  • GDP estimates and revisions
  • Retail sales and consumption
  • What leads and what confirms
Start lesson

Putting macro on the chart

Turning a macro view into something with an entry, a stop and a date.

06

Risk-On and Risk-Off

20 min4 topics

The behaviour that makes unrelated markets move together, and the currencies it moves most.

  • What the terms describe
  • Funding and haven currencies
  • Reading it across markets
  • When the pattern stops working
Start lesson
07

Carry and Rate Differentials

18 min4 topics

Getting paid to hold a position, and the reason that trade unwinds violently.

  • Carry as a rate differential
  • Swap as the retail form of it
  • Why the unwind is sharp
  • Does carry matter at your timeframe
Start lesson
08

Trading Around the Economic Calendar

22 min4 topics

Planning the week around what is scheduled, rather than being surprised by it.

  • Reading a calendar and its impact ratings
  • Consensus, actual and prior
  • Deciding before, not during
  • Size and stops around a release
Start lesson

8 lessons · ~2.7 hrs